This economist won every bet he made on the future. Then he tested ChatGPT

This economist won every bet he made on the future. Then he tested ChatGPT

Bryan Caplan was skeptical after AI struggled on his midterm exam. But within months, it had aced the test

The economist Bryan Caplan was sure the artificial intelligence baked into ChatGPT wasn’t as smart as it was cracked up to be. The question: could the AI ace his undergraduate class’s 2022 midterm exam?

Caplan, of George Mason University in Virginia, seemed in a good position to judge. He has made a name for himself by placing bets on a range of newsworthy topics, from Donald Trump’s electoral chances in 2016 to future US college attendance rates. And he nearly always wins, often by betting against predictions he views as hyperbolic.

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